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Chance, risk, uncertainty: they're all part of our lives, whether we're in business or on the school run, deciding future strategy or just the best route home. Sometimes their effects are intriguing: a streak of extraordinary luck, say, or some bizarre coincidence. More often they just leave us confused, unnerved - even anxious. When is a series of odd events mere happenstance, or something more significant? How do we make sense of the ever-changing evidence about what's good or bad for us? Just how reliable are predictions of weather, climate and elections - and how should we respond to them? In this book, award-winning scientist and writer Robert Matthews shows how we can cut through such conundrums using some of the most potent intellectual tools ever developed: the laws of probability. Using real-life examples, he shows how to wield them to: Understand and even predict coincidences Tell when insurance policies are worth having Make sense of medical tests and scientific 'breakthroughs' Judge when "expert" evidence is compelling or questionable Make decisions about everything from sports betting to weather forecasts Professor Matthews also gives a groundbreaking introduction to the power of Bayes's Theorem, whose ability to turn evidence into insight is now transforming our lives - and helping to unmask a major scientific scandal.

In rugby, there are the Flash Harrys and the Glory Boys: the fly-halves who run, kick and dazzle; the scrum-halves who nip and dart; the wingers who step and glide. These are the players who get the crowd on their feet, who set stadiums abuzz. But they only get to do these things because other, less glorified figures do all of the donkey work. Adam Jones is one such figure. And for a decade he was one of the world's best. On many occasions when George North or Shane Williams were careering under the posts to score a try, and the crowd was engulfed in rapturous joy, Adam Jones would be hauling himself up from the turf, spitting blood and mud, and massaging his aching neck. He hadn't scored the try; but more often than not it was his graft and strength which had made it. This is the story of 'Bomb': the self-effacing manual labourer from the Swansea Valley who traded laying paving slabs for running out in some of the world's most imposing sporting citadels. He rose to the pinnacle of his sport, winning virtually everything there was to be won: Chancing it: The Laws of Chance and How They Can Work for You download epub Grand Slams, Six Nations Championships, Lions tours, Pro12 titles. In a nation of rugby heroes, Adam Jones has become a legend.

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Author: Robert Matthews
Number of Pages: 288 pages
Published Date: 25 Feb 2016
Publisher: Profile Books Ltd
Publication Country: London, United Kingdom
Language: English
ISBN: 9781781250303
Download Link: Click Here
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